top of page

Economic Recession Predictions

Updated: Jan 21, 2021

Thomas delivers an EconSov briefing at a BMW board room

Economic Recession Update

Surveyed economists from the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) predict upcoming recession in the following year:

2019: 10% 2020: 42% 2021: 25% 2022 or later: 23%

This is consistent with forecasts I have been tracking by Guggenheim, Deutsch Bank, Ben Bernanke, Larry Summers, Quantum Fund, and Alan Greenspan. Count me in with the group that says 2021 or 2022.

In 2016, the book Economic Sovereignty: Prosperity in a Free Society, laid out the sociopolitical and economic concepts which drive recession and prosperity. Forecasts for readers and private briefings have empowered Alvarism subscribers to prepare and get ahead with wise choices. Those who applied our concepts and consulting are much better positioned.

What will the next recession look like? Volatile factors make specifics elusive. In the best case, stagnant destructionism (the consumption of capital), is predicted by Daniel Lacalle. He accurately lays out the trajectory of financial repression, and explains how Japan’s decades of destructionism were spared without illegal immigration in order to preserve their social insurance programs.

Buckling of the social insurance programs will accelerate the consumption of capital. Immigration, sub-replacement fertility rates, and expansion of redistribution contribute to the acceleration.

Lacalle does not use the term destructionism, but his approach speaks to the Austrian and Classical economic schools of thought, so I’m sure he would agree. Alvarism predicts protracted destructionism in the USA until voters demand implementation of the policies suggested in Economic Sovereignty.

Irrespective of whether the upcoming recession is stagnant or severe, quickly adopting the knowledge in Economic Sovereignty will improve any citizen’s position.

bottom of page